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Conformal prediction

By Updated

A distribution-free method that turns a trained model's output into a set of candidate answers that contains the right one with a chosen probability 1. A large set signals uncertainty that a governance rule can route on.

Developed in
ch. 11, Calibration before thresholds
Chapters
ch. 11, AI Defined
Source
1 numbered reference, listed below

Where it is used

2 chapters of the Body of Knowledge use the term. Each link opens the first section that does.

  • Calibration

    The property that a model's confidence matches its accuracy: of the cases scored 0.9, about nine in ten are right.

  • Abstention band

    A range of scores in which a system does not act on its own but routes the case to a human reviewer.

Sources

  1. [1] A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification (prediction sets with user-specified coverage; arXiv 2107.07511). Angelopoulos and Bates. 2021-07-15. https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.07511 (verified: primary)

Definitions of legal terms paraphrase the cited text, which governs. Dated statements are as of .

Cite this term

García Aibar, J. (2026). Conformal prediction. In AI Governance Engineering: The Thesis & Body of Knowledge (v0.5.0), Glossary. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22956197. https://aigovernanceengineer.com/glossary/conformal-prediction. CC BY 4.0

BibTeX

@misc{aige2026conformalprediction,
  author  = {Jorge García Aibar},
  title   = {{Conformal prediction}},
  note    = {Glossary, AI Governance Engineering: The Thesis \& Body of Knowledge, version 0.5.0},
  year    = {2026},
  doi     = {10.5281/zenodo.22956197},
  url     = {https://aigovernanceengineer.com/glossary/conformal-prediction}
}